The Influence of Public Sentiment on Betting Lines

1. Opening Lines and Initial Adjustments:

• Heavy Public Betting: If a significant portion of the public backs one side heavily, sportsbooks may adjust the line to balance the action. This can create betting opportunities for Sports Bettors looking to capitalize on skewed odds.
• Public Influence: When sportsbooks release the opening lines for a game, they are a reflection of the oddsmakers' assessment of the matchup. However, these lines are not static and sports books will adjust them in the leadup to the match starting based on betting activity, and public sentiment plays a pivotal role in these adjustments. Popular teams may have odds that reflect their popularity, and odds makers may offer better odds to bet against the popular team to even out the bets on both outcomes of the match.

2. Market reactions and Line Movements:

• Sharp Bettor Influence: While public sentiment can drive initial line movements, sharp bettors - those with deep experience and informed betting decisions - may influence subsequent line movements. A profitable Sports Bettor will analyze these line shifts to identify potential betting opportunities.
• Public Consensus: Analyzing public consensus can provide insights into how the majority of sports bettors perceive a game. When the public overwhelmingly favors a particular team, sports books may shift the betting line in response to the demand, creating opportunities for Sports Bettors.

3. Primetime Games and High-Profile Teams:

• Primetime TV Influence: High-profile games on prime time television often attract more public attention. Public sentiment tends to be bigger in these games, amplifying its impact on betting lines.
• The effect of Star Power: Teams with star players or storied histories often draw more public support. The New York Yankees even have a term for this - being “blinded by the Pinstripes.” Sportsbooks may adjust lines to manage the larger amounts of bets on these star powered teams, creating opportunities for the profitable Sports Bettor to find imbalances and betting opportunities.

4. Impact on Totals and Point Spreads:

• Totals (Over/Under): Public sentiment also shapes the totals market. If the public thinks that a certain game will be high scoring, Sports Books may adjust the over/under total upward. If there are public expectations of a defensive battle, this may lead to a downward adjustment.
• Point Spreads: Public sentiment can heavily influence point spreads. If a popular team has widespread support, the point spread may be adjusted to encourage betting on the underdog, balancing the sportsbook's exposure. The popular teams may have less good betting opportunities as their popularity causes Sports Books to increase the attractiveness of betting on their opposition to even out betting totals.
  
  

Contrarian betting is a strategy where bettors deliberately go against public sentiment of an event or outcome. The basic idea is that when the majority of the public leans heavily towards one side, the betting line may be artificially inflated or deflated, creating opportunities. The principles of contrarian sports betting include:

1. Identifying Public Consensus:

• Line Movements: Contrarian Sports Bettors will monitor line movements and how they correlate with public sentiment. If the public overwhelmingly supports one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction, it may suggest that Betting Sharps are moving against the public consensus.
• Public Percentage: Monitoring the percentage of bets on each side, referred to as the "public percentage," is a key aspect of contrarian betting. High public percentages on a particular team or outcome may provide an opportunity for the contrarian Sports Bettor.

2. Patience and Discipline:

• Selective Opportunities: Contrarian bettors are patient and disciplined, selectively identifying opportunities where public sentiment has created value. Not every game presents contrarian opportunities, and restraint is crucial to be successful.
• Avoid Emotional Betting: Contrarian bettors are detached from emotional biases and are not swayed by the mood of the crowd. The successful contrarian Sports Bettor must develop the ability to make rational, calculated decisions in the face of overwhelming public sentiment.

3. Exploiting Market Overreactions:

• Overreactions to News: Public sentiment can react quickly to news including injuries to key players or recent team performance. Contrarian Sports Bettors look for situations where public sentiment overreacts to such factors and distorts betting lines.
• Market Over corrections: When there is significant public betting on one team or outcome, sports books may overcorrect lines to manage risk. Contrarian Sports Bettors look for situations where the market overreacts, creating betting opportunities on the opposite side.

4. Understand Sports Book Exposure:

• Balancing the Book: Sportsbooks aim to balance their exposure to minimize risk and ideally want the same amount of money bet on both outcomes of an event. When public sentiment heavily favors one side, sportsbooks may adjust lines to attract bets on the less popular side, creating value for contrarian bettors.
• Public Perception vs. Reality: Contrarian Sports Bettors understand that public sentiment doesn't always align with the likely outcome of a game. Exploiting discrepancies between public perception and the objective assessment of a matchup is the core of contrarian betting.

• Research and Analysis: Contrarian betting is not about blindly opposing public sentiment about a game or event. The profitable contrarian Sports Bettor will conduct thorough research, analyzing line movements, and understand the nuances of each matchup.
• Line Shopping: Shopping for the best available odds between sports books is a crucial skill for contrarian bettors. Odds often vary between sports books and this can significantly impact the winnings of a correct wager. Shop the line before placing your bets. 
• Bankroll Management: Like any Sports Betting strategy, contrarian betting requires effective bankroll management. Not every contrarian bet will be successful, and prudent bankroll management where only a fraction of the overall bankroll is bet on any particular game helps withstand inevitable losses.